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COCERAL Updates EU Grain Outlook

Date: 18/06/2024 – Grain

COCERAL, a key European association focused on agricultural trade, recently released its updated forecast for the 2024 EU and UK grain crop on June 10, 2024. The latest projections indicate slight increases in total grain production, with specific volume updates against wheat, barley, corn, and rapeseed for a comprehensive overview of the 2024 market.

Total Grain Production

The total grain production for the EU and UK is now forecasted at 296 million tonnes, an increase of 500,000 tonnes from the previous forecast in March 2024. If realized, this would be 3.2 million tonnes more than the 2023 production levels.

Wheat Production

Wheat production (excluding durum) is forecasted at 134.5 million tonnes, a slight increase from the March forecast of 134.1 million tonnes but down from 139.9 million tonnes in 2023. The decline is attributed to adverse weather conditions affecting winter cereal sowing in northwestern Europe, including France, Germany, the UK, the Baltics, and Poland.

Barley Production

Barley production is projected at 59.9 million tonnes, down from 61.2 million tonnes in the previous forecast but up from 54.4 million tonnes in 2023. Improved yields are expected in Denmark, Finland, and Spain, contributing to this increase compared to last year.

Corn Production

The preliminary forecast for the EU27+UK corn crop is 64.8 million tonnes, an increase from the March forecast of 64.3 million tonnes and 1 million tonnes higher than the 2023 output. This increase is supported by favourable growing conditions in several key regions.

Rapeseed Production

The EU27+UK rapeseed crop is forecasted at 19.4 million tonnes, a decrease from the March forecast of 20.2 million tonnes and down from last year’s 21.4 million tonnes. This decrease is attributed to less favourable weather conditions impacting crop yields.

Weather Impact

Record rainfall late last year negatively impacted winter cereal sowing in key regions such as France, Germany, the UK, the Baltics, and Poland. Conversely, Spain is expected to see a substantial increase in production compared to 2023 due to more favourable weather conditions.

Summary

The updated forecast by COCERAL highlights a cautiously optimistic outlook for the EU and UK grain markets in 2024, with notable variations across different types of grains. Adverse weather conditions have impacted some regions, leading to mixed outcomes in production forecasts, however, the slight increase in overall production projections indicates a robust response from the agricultural sector. Regular monitoring of these trends is essential for stakeholders.

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