U.S. Sugar Supply Boost Following July Data
July 2024 Edition
Date: 15/07/2024 – Sugar
Following the latest WASDE report on July 12th, we have updated figures for the US sugar supply, with an improved outlook due to higher imports and increased production figures. This is a strong boost compared to the previously reported June data. In this short report, we break down the key updates and changes for both the 2023/24 season and the 2024/25 season.
Note – 1 short tons raw value (STRV) = 0.907185 metric tons
U.S. Production Overview
For the 2023/24 season, the US sugar supply has increased by 304,831 STRV, reaching a total of 14.682 million STRV.
- Beet Sugar: With the end of beet slicing in all regions except California, the USDA has adjusted beet processor estimates, resulting in a production increase to 5.179 million STRV 24. This figure includes a slight reduction from desugared molasses, compared to June’s revised figure of 5.045 million STRV.
- Cane Sugar: Production in Florida has risen by 5,791 STRV based on processor reports, reversing the previous month’s decrease of 32,000 STRV to 2.004 million STRV.
Import Adjustments
Imports have climbed by 165,259 STRV to 3.619 million STRV for 2023/24. This includes a significant rise in high-tier tariff imports, now estimated at 700,000 STRV for raw and 270,000 STRV for refined sugar. Additionally, sugar derived from imported molasses used in refining processes has increased, reflecting an uptick of 11,753 STRV. In contrast, June’s report had increased high-tier tariff imports by only 47,000 STRV and trimmed imports from Mexico by 31,000 STRV.
Use & Stock Updates
Sugar use has increased by 42,912 STRV, largely due to robust export activity to Mexico. As a result, ending stocks are now projected at 1.986 million STRV, implying a stocks-to-use ratio of 15.6%, compared to June’s lower estimate of 1.724 million STRV with a stocks-to-use ratio of 13.6%.
For the 2024/25 period, the U.S. sugar supply is set to rise by 249,972 STRV, with notable increases in beginning stocks and beet sugar production offsetting a reduction in imports. Beet sugar production is forecasted at 5.236 million STRV, reflecting improvements in harvested area, yield, and processing capacity, a significant revision from June’s forecasted reduction.
Mexico Production Overview
Mexico’s 2023/24 sugar supply has had some minor adjustments, with larger imports counterbalancing a small reduction in production. Imports for consumption have increased by 114,000 MT, and IMMEX program imports are up by 36,700 MT. This supports a higher carryover into 2024/25 due to anticipated poor production, aligning with June’s report of increased imports and a 25-year low in production at 4.718 million MT.
Export Adjustments
- Exports to the U.S.: For 2024/25, Mexican exports are reduced to 708,420 MT, largely due to decreased exports to the U.S. market under the CVD Suspension Agreement. This is a significant change from June’s reduction of exports to 399,000 MT for 2023/24.
- Exports to Other Countries: Small exports to other countries are anticipated, with reduced exports to the U.S. eliminating the need for substantial imports, compared to June’s projection of zero exports to other countries for 2023/24.
References
- WASDE 12 July 2024 – Link
- Image Credit: John Lillis (uuid:faf5bdd5-ba3d-11da-ad31-d33d75182f1b)
Sugar at TP-Exports
At TP-Exports, we deliver sugar for food production and animal feed demand, including liquid and refined. With our industry-focused approach, we ensure every kilogram is managed and supplied through stringent controls that maximize traceability, nutrient retention, contamination control and moisture restriction.
To learn more about our sugar products, or for more information refer to our Contact Us page.